Tyrion’s Cyvasse game

This is my take on Tyrion’s Cyvasse ‘game’. (Originally posted as a Reddit comment).

cyvasse_by_b_jackdaw-d7vx9dd
Cyvasse by B-jackdaw. Source: DeviantArt

He gives two pieces of advice to Aegon – (1) Through words, go to Westeros ASAP because this is the right time to strike (2) Through the game, keep your dragon close. These two pieces are contradictory, because Aegon can’t keep his dragon (Dany) close and go to Westeros soon – it has to be one or the other.

At the time of the game, Tyrion does not know Dany was wed, or that she intend to stay at Meereen – any Westerosi will expect her to return West. Tyrion has no idea about Jorah, and he does not expect to be parted from the Shy Maid crew. So in hindsight, it would appear as if Tyrion wanted to make a quick return to Westeros, and defeat Cersei. After all, everything he said about Cersei’s ineptitude and the chaos in Westeros became real in AFFC. It does look like Aegon will have a successful campaign for at least some duration following his landing in Westeros.

Only, Tyrion Lannister is not a green boy eager for victories, nor is he as desperate as Jon Connington (exiled though both are). Even if we ignore his self-destructive mindset throughout the first-half of Dance, he is obsessed with dragons – enough to keep reading about them long after the last of them were dead, and before even Dany had hatched her three dragons. He will never turn away from the prospect of seeing real dragons (even after escaping death by lions at Daznak’s Pit, he is disappointed that he could not see the dragon taking flight), especially if these dragons are in the care of someone who would want to overpower his sister Cersei.

So why advise Aegon to turn away from dragons? Because he knew they would not be able to turn West, even if Aegon himself was convinced it was the right course. From Tyrion’s viewpoint, Jon Connington would not take such a ‘foolish course’ of discarding their best advantage, a marriage alliance with the dragon queen, just to take advantage of politics. They have waited long enough, they could wait a bit more. (I believe JonCon would have waited, if not for the grayscale and Dany staying East).

Effectively, Tyrion was planting an idea in Aegon’s mind that things could be smoother and quicker if they only reached Westeros in the right time. Here is what I think Tyrion expected to happen:

  1. Aegon is eager to demonstrate his talent, probably discusses the prospect of turning West with JonCon
  2. Jon Con disagrees, they continue their course East. Aegon is unhappy with Jon Con, wonders how much more JonCon will control him once they win the throne
  3. They reach Dany, and Aegon ‘finds’ that she is exactly as Tyrion described her (it was an intelligent guess from his part, and even if Dany was different, Tyrion already planted a first impression stencil in Aegon’s mind so it would be difficult for him to form a drastically different opinion).
  4. Dany is not over-the-moon about Aegon (not unexpectedly), and even if she is, Aegon doubts if that is enough. Tyrion has enough factual details (the Dothraki, Unsullied support of Dany) to guess that she has earned more support and more followers than Aegon, this causes Aegon to feel inferior (more so than he would have felt, if not for Tyrion’s view on the matter).
  5. Aegon begins to wonder what would have happened if only he followed Tyrion’s advice.. Heard melodies are sweet, those unheard are sweeter, so Aegon will think things would have been better for him if he had listened to Tyrion instead of Jon Connington, Illyrio or Varys. Voila! There goes puppetmasters’ plan to groom their perfect prince. In all likeliness, the prince would be more prone to listening to Tyrion now, or at least think twice before following what JonCon, Varys or Illyrio tells him to do.

Considering Tyrion’s mindset at the time of the game, I think he was just trying to cause chaos, almost in the fashion of Littlefinger’s usual MO. He was being asked to dress like a clown, he was being kept under the dark, and he was feeling suicidal after the Tysha reminder from Jaime. JonCon reminded him of Tywin, and Tyrion was never a big fan of Varys to begin with. What Tyrion really wanted Aegon to do was this: Trust no one.

Not your chainless maester, not your false father, not the gallant Duck nor the lovely Lemore nor these other fine friends who grew you from a bean. Above all, trust not the cheesemonger, nor the Spider, nor this little dragon queen you mean to marry.

If Tyrion was more his pre-ADWD self, I’d have guessed he had plans to play for Dany’s trust while distancing Aegon and his team from her – after all, Tyrion is going to have a hard time achieving the position of influence under king Aegon, with Varys, Illyrio (from behind the curtain) and Jon Connington already having brought him up. Dany on the other hand have no one with political acumen (Illyrio or Varys does say this to Tyrion) on her side. It’s not surprising that Tyrion would try to seize the opportunity. However, I think he was more in destructive mindset than an ambitious one at the time of the game.

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Her hair was a rich autumn auburn, her eyes a deep Tully blue. Grief had given her a haunted, vulnerable look; if anything, it had only made her more beautiful. He wanted to reach her, to break through the armor of her courtesy. Was that what made him speak?

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And so it was that her lord husband cloaked her in the colors of House Lannister whilst standing on the back of a fool.

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“I can see how virtuous you are just by looking at those rosy cheeks and big blue eyes of yours.”

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“You have your mother’s eyes. Honest eyes, and innocent. Blue as a sunlit sea. When you are a little older, many a man will drown in those eyes.”

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It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face…

It took all the courage that was in her to look in those mismatched eyes and say, “And if I never want you to, my lord?”

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 Note: Sansa isn’t the only one described as having eyes like deep blue pools, but it is her husband who goes under the name Hugor Hill. Given my personal history as a literature enthusiast, I should have been inclined to shipping Sansa with the Hound. Somehow I never could. I like the Hound well enough, just never thought of him and Sansa as a thing until I got into forums. Since ASOS, I’ve been shipping SanRion. But I get where SanSan people come from. What I don’t get are the ‘monsters’ who ship Sansa with Littlefinger.

Plot Armour

Incomplete.

Meereen (Tyrion, Barristan and Victarion)

  • I’m certain Tyrion will come out of Meereen alive. Tyrion is wanted for murder, and in the middle of a war. Despite all these, him dying in Meereen makes no change to any other part of the story. Cersei will be glad, Jaime might be sad, Dany would never have known him. The only major thing is Sansa becoming a widow. I doubt GRRM will kill off Tyrion just to make Sansa a widow, especially she is in the care of Littlefinger who can find other ways to annul their marriage (by producing Tysha)/
  • Victarion so far has been safe, but I assumed he will be soon dead, because of the ‘corpse on the prow of a ship’ vision. From Aeron I sample chapter, it is almost certain that this corpse will be Aeron. Between the Dusky Woman, Euron, Moqorro, Slavers and dragon, Vic is walking thin ice and could get killed, but if Aeron dies, Vis is our only Ironborn POV  (someone with good access to Euron) in outside the North.
  • Barristan is in very precarious position. He is the Queen’s Hand, and has been involved in everything that happened in Meereen in Dany’s absence. He unmade king Hizdahr (for good or bad), he made the deal with Dornishmen and Windblown. And he is in the forefront of the Battle. With Jorah already in Meereen, we have someone in Team Dany to interact with the Unsullied and we can watch Jorah through Tyrion’s POV. Things are not looking good for Barristan. Except that Barristan is one of the few people who knew Rhaegar well, and this knowledge may come to use.

Braavos (Arya)

  • Arya was safe ever since she escaped King’s Landing. As long as she is isolated from all other POVs, killing her off will only help to sadden the readers. GRRM is not JK Rowling to kill major characters off-screen and mention it one line (Lupin and Tonks) just for the sake of emotional turmoil, so it is safe to assume that Arya will live until her story shifts to near some other character. In case of Bran, at least Sam and Gilly knows the truth, not to mention the others who escaped Witnerfell with Bran, but the only people who know Arya is alive are the Facelessmen (and probably Bran). Both these have no direct ties with other characters. Rest of the world believes Arya is dead or married to Ramsay. Real Arya is safe for now.

North of the Wall (Bran)

  • Valyrian Steel plot armor. Only his companions know he is alive, and others (Osha, Rickon, Wex, etc) can’t know for certain if he is still alive, or even access Bran. World believes him dead. Him really dying have serious impact on the long run, but no one is affected visibly.

The Vale

Introduction

The_vale

The Eyrie by Ted Nasmith, from A World of Ice and Fire

On the surface, everything in the Vale seems to go as Littlefinger has planned. The Lords Declarants are in his pocket, Harry the Heir is enamored by Alayne, the tourney for Winged Knights presents a good occasion to get someone killed if necessary. Littlefinger’s end goal is a mystery, and he is known to act in a way that will appear to act against him only for confusing his opponents. But we can theorize about what the other characters in the Vale will be planning. Let’s analyse their resources and interests. Read more